Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The typical figure of daily killings per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government data. However, security analysts have warned that homicide data might not signal better national security.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen during these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the least amount of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, alongside the administration's highly military operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts cautioned that using homicide data to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was also an issue because it might mask days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.